There's hope in the twilight days of the dying industrial economy. Photo: Llyn Gayatri Crounse.
When people tell me the dire messages about which I write don’t resonate with other people, I struggle with a coherent response. Would you prefer continued overshoot on an overshot planet? Would you prefer we keep heating our overheated home? Would you prefer we ignore the most important issues in the history of our species?
Okay, well party on, brothers and sisters, until you can be bothered to extract your heads from the sand. You’re welcome to operate as if as long as we ignore reality, it’ll all be fine. That is the cultural norm.
Judging from their actions, most people I know are more committed to maintaining their imperial lifestyles than in securing the lives of their children by retaining a livable habitat for humans on Earth. At least for me, this aberrant behavior explains how we managed to find ourselves in this dire array of interconnected predicaments. Empathy is so rare we treat it as a treasure. Which, of course, it is.
We’re willing to risk extinction by nuclear meltdown to keep the lights on. And not merely the extinction of other species, which we’ve been causing for generations. This time, we’re willing to take Homo sapiens into the abyss in exchange for hot pizza and cold beer. Meanwhile, governments of the world continue to cover up disasters as they occur. And we, the people, willingly let them because we can’t handle the truth.
Seeking energy at all costs
How far will we go to secure energy? Clearly, to the ends of the Earth. And perhaps, if we’re successful industrialists, even to the end of the (living) world.
As if ongoing events in Japan aren’t enough to convince you that dependence upon nuclear power plants isn’t a good idea — and apparently those events have failed to convince Barack Obama, who refuses to step down from his pro-nuclear stance — what about drilling for oil at depths we know are profoundly unsafe? That pesky Gulf of Mexico has sprung another leak, this time near yet another deepwater oil rig. Of course, this event isn’t deemed newsworthy, even as cleanup efforts have been under way for weeks.
Increasingly desperate for crude oil, the International Energy Agency is begging Norway to ratchet up production. Sorry, no dice from post-peak countries. The Obama administration’s response includes curtailing funding for the US Energy Information Administration, as if hiding from the facts about energy decline will help develop a coherent response.
Among the prices we pay for our imperial desires, apparently all too willingly: Ice is melting from Greenland and Antarctica at a rate that surprises even the global-change scientists studying the issue. This is merely one more notch in the miles-long belt of industry, yet another minor insult on an overheating, overwrought planet.
Tack on the couple hundred species we drive to extinction each and every day, along with utter destruction of every other aspect of Earth’s environment, and you start to get the idea our efforts aren’t entirely positive.
Big changes are on the way
Fortunately, our opportunities for planetary destruction are dwindling along with the supply of planetary energy.
In the absence of a willing transition to a future with access to less energy, geology will force us to power down, hence reduce the size of the industrial economy. Already it’s too late for a fast collapse of the industrial economy: According to every significant index, the US hit its economic peak in 2000. We’ve been in the midst of an economic recession since 2000. We’ve been mired in an economic depression since 2008, when the industrial age came within an eyelash of reaching its overdue terminus.
Even Ben Bernanke admitted American Empire nearly sucked its last breath, albeit years after the 2008 meltdown on Wall Street. When all the banks fail — or even a significant proportion of them — we’ll suddenly lose access to the fiat currency that allows the current set of living arrangements to persist.
Just as spikes in the price of oil preceded every economic recession since 1972, so too will the next price spike drive the industrial economy to the abyss. At the very least, the next spike in the price of oil will lead to another huge downturn.
According to dozens of energy literate pundits, the next spike in the price of oil will be the one that puts western civilization in the abattoir. This will be no surprise to the few Americans paying attention, given the fragility of the industrial economy and its near-termination back in 2008 when it was on much stronger footing than now.
Oil priced at $140 barrel is almost certainly coming this year, and that should do the trick, much to the astonishment of those who believe the industrial economy is unaffected by spikes in the price of oil, or that a long-time economic decline can turn into economic collapse.
Good news about our future
When American Empire completes its ongoing fall, we’ll be focused on the only economic system too big to fail: Earth. We will revere the ecosystems that provide us with water, food, clothing, protection from the elements, and all the philosophy we’ll ever need. We will witness the end of the seemingly endless wars for energy. We’ll live as part of the Earth, rather than apart from it.
As relocalization comes back in style, we’ll know all the non-human neighbors by name, and we will nurture them as they take care of us. We will learn to care for the planet that sustains us all and we’ll honor the lives of humans and other animals in the region we occupy. Along the way, we will concern ourselves with storing the harvest and saving seeds, harvesting what we sow and eating what we harvest, and paying careful attention to what we feed our children.
When American Empire completes its fall, we will learn to cherish our (human) communities while relying on them for care, just as we will care for others. Instead of being slaves to the economy and its government, we will be partners with our neighbors and the lands and waters that sustain us. We will conduct the difficult and meaningful work associated with stewardship of the lands, waters, and human communities that support us. Along the way, we will all learn how to accept death as we celebrate life.
When American Empire completes its fall, we will ignore the gods of economic growth who demand we destroy the planet in their name. We will not be attracted to shiny objects and those who promote those objects as wealth. Instead, we’ll be concerned about legitimate wealth: food and water supplied by healthy soils and the company of friends supplied by healthy communities.
This all sounds too good to be true. Why are we afraid of imperial collapse? Why are we not eagerly trying to destroy the empire that is destroying us?
–Guy McPherson for Transition Voice
About Guy McPherson
People don’t like change, least of all, changing their comfort levels and lifestyles that support them. Denial is the mechanism that facilitates that. And people will not change until they are forced to.
I remember three years ago a discussion with a young graduate student that the economic recession would worsen before it improved, and that it was a good thing. He understood my reasoning, as you recount in your essay here. But even he recognized then what we are seeing now: “People won’t want to hear that, and they will deny it and fight it when they do hear it. They will call it the ‘anti-Christ,’ the ‘communists,’ the ‘conspiracy theorists,’ on and on; and hold their hands over their ears while shaking their heads. Change will come only by revolution.”
I fear he was right.
Yes. I was thinking about how the religions would have a field day, just as they did after San Francisco in 1906…leading to our present day Evangelists. Coupled with modern standards of couch-living, I think there is much to fear in this aspect of transition.
Just remember to spread the word that survival is a team sport, and no one is secure if their neighbor is hungry.
“Along the way, we will all learn how to accept death as we celebrate life.”
Yes. About 4 out of the 6 billion of us that wouldn’t exist if not for cheap energy.
“This sounds too good to be true.”
Only until you realize that you missed that dieoff bit in the story. Admittedly, I could be wrong…the number might be more like 2 or 3 billion; but the results are the same when you accept the statistics and the dependencies of our world.
Other than that, I do like this essay very much. Thank you.
But the die-off will be so much worse if we wait. We’re several thousand years and nearly seven billion people into human-population overshoot. It seems most people would rather wait until we’re a few thousand more years, and a few billion more people, into overshoot … then we’ll start working toward a more durable set of living arrangements.
Agreed.
The meek shall inherit the radioactive wind.
I agree completely. The sooner, the better for facing the dieoff. Don’t conserve, use it up, which of course we are doing mindlessly.
With great sadness, we must recognize the direct connection between present day population levels and the use of fossil fuels in food production, medical procedures, medicines and hygiene. With the fall in fossil fuel availability there will be a reduction in population. Population soared with the industrial revolution and the development of industrial, fossil fuel based agriculture. It cannot be sustained.
This is where localization comes in: Using up resources just so the Empire falls is not the same as using up resources to create or acquire the tools and resources needed locally in the future. Go ahead, work for The Man, get paid as much as possible. Then, buy tools, land, seeds, guns and ammo (ammunition will be more valuable than gold and silver), take your neighbors out for dinner and talk to them about security, food, energy and local government awareness of peak oil. By all means use up what you can, but be USEFUL in doing so. The key to survival of any species is that it creates more future for itself than it consumes. We cannot create enough usefulness to overcome the global consumption rate of 7 billion deluded humans, but we can work locally to allow a few to overcome their cultural paradigm of waste when TSHTF. The current term used in the peak oil discussion is EROEI (energy returned on energy invested): we have to begin to think ahead to our own UROUI (usefulness returned on usefulness invested), and that usefulness returned has to be available in the future, not just for immediate consumption and instant gratification. Almost anything we do can be useful (labor, re-creation, music, service to each other, children, education, civilization, tools), but the bottom line is the Net Future Usefulness ratio (legacy) which remains after we each are done living. Just as the American Dream used to be that our children had a better life than their parents, the new Dream must be that each generation makes the planet have a better life than their parents did. Only then will humans be sustainable.
“Why are we not eagerly trying to destroy the empire that is destroying us?”
See my previous answer. Nobody wants to really believe that the transition is going to happen. Working to make it happen means the deaths of billions on our hands, whether we actively destroy the mechanisms of Empire or we simply stop supporting it with our consumption (by choice now or default later). Most would logically choose to delay and default, thus being less to blame than if they became active saboteurs.
I usually say, “If you want Change, keep it in your pocket.” but that implies the same thing: the destruction of the consumption Empire which is basically a humanist life support machine running at the expense of every resource on the planet to create more and more humans. Fight that system, and you pull the plug on massive numbers of people. You have to. You aren’t going to ‘educate’ millions of obese, auto-dependent couch potatoes into becoming earth-supporting flower children. Most will simply die. Until we face that fact, then the transition efforts are still deluded and will fail to properly conduct triage when the need arises. (the need started when we began using deadly chemicals to produce ‘food’: it’s just so over the top now that we cannot begin to get a handle on things).
The only problem is though, the American Empire isn’t the only over-consuming country in the world, though it certainly accounts for a major part of environmental destruction and resource depletion. The fall of the American Empire must not be accompanied by the rise of the Chinese Empire. The Chinese are as reckless with their environment as the Americans, if not more so. Today we see the war against Wikileaks – if China ruled the world, Assange would probably be a dead man. When the American Empire completes its fall, our survival will only be guaranteed if the rest of the world cuts consumption substantially – and provided the Chinese Empire does not take advantage of America’s fall to fuel its own economic “rise”.
A fine post, Guy. Thanks to you and Transition Voice for bringing this perspective into the world.
I was at the bank yesterday and had a brief converstation with an account manager. He assured me that the economy was cyclical and would eventually turn around. This commonly held belief says everything: most people are unaware of the true nature of resource depletion and how a ‘living’ biosphere is essential for our existance. The very thought of turning off our nuclear power plants before we lose the capacity to do so safely hasn’t entered into their wildest dreams (nightmares). And yet, it is the only rational thing we can do.
Totally agree Guy. Unfortunately, it is too late. The first plague of humans in the history of the planet is about to come to an end. It won’t be pretty and will be bloody.
What we should have done is depopulated, consumed less and planted lots and lots of trees. The elites already have their guns, their country retreats and will end up with tonnes of free stuff.
Evolution in action.
Isn’t there an even bigger picture out there? One beyond our comprehension? One that had dinosaurs mucking about for hundreds of millions of years. One that had all continents joined at the hip? Human history on this planet is just a blip.
Of course we should revel in our blip and participate in the possibilities our blip holds, but no need to go all downer fundamentalist. The world has ended several times. I’m never quite sure why humans think they can dodge these cycles. We are a presumptuous bunch.
The thing that attracted me to Transition was that it seemed to want to bring people up, not down. And it doesn’t have all the answers and admits so. Depending on one’s belief system, everyday is our last day, so why not tidy up a bit? That’s what I see Transition as; just cleaning up one’s own backyard to best of one’s intentions before the lights go out.
T.: What do you think of my reply to Sunweb above? By “bigger picture”, do you mean the geological cycles, or do you mean the symbiosis which dinosaurs managed to keep going for millions of years? I wonder if the human species which is currently alive will have to change so much that any sustainable, symbiotic version (human 2.0) will refuse to reproduce with us (and possibly exterminate us). In other words, will we have to change so much in the transition that we will no longer be considered Homo sapiens? Perhaps Homo Symbiosis? Or will we simply reclassify the last 500 years or so as “Homo consumptus”?
Hi Auntie,
I like your Human version 2.0 concept and reread your response to Sunweb. I think we’re updating versions rather quickly. From the industrial age, HomoConsumptus into the age of the iHuman. Now we are heading into HomoUnplugged or HomoNoMo. Maybe the OtherPowersThatBe (which includes us), will give the planet a rest from humans for a few billion years and we’ll all come back as jellyfish. That is vaguely what I mean by cycles. Mostly the beyond comprehension kind.
My always beef with the overpopulation focus is that it translates into population control. Who is controlling whom? And by what right or means? Are there too many people on the planet or too many people living too long using too much sutff? What if we all voluntarily called it quits at say age 30, ala Logans Run? It seems a rather superior attitude to say yes, there are just too many of us but I’m not one of them. Therefore I will not throw myself off the nearest cliff as an example of my conviction.
As of today, as of right now, I agree we should make our resource use, useful and responsible. But not too useful as to become industrious. And not too responsible as to become preachy. Maybe helpful instead of useful? Humble instead of castigating? And joyous, meaningful and appreciative. All those things the mass of humanity seems to want anyway, after all the gadgets are stripped away.
T: I think the biggest rebuttal to your argument regarding the morality of population control is this:
It is going to happen regardless; and if we don’t take control, then mother nature will, and she won’t be nearly as nice. I think Derrick Jensen said something just the same fairly recently.
Thank you so much for this. Sometimes I feel very alone in thinking this way. It’s always a relief to discover that, even if I am crazy, my delusions are shared with others. Keep writing.
Corporations have always had more to lose than us – the only time anything is a concern is when it threatens their existance, then suddenly it’s made to be our fault and/or our problem. Saw it all in the 70′s when it was the threat of nuclear war – one big bluff – the people behind the button had more to lose than the fearful masses. But my, didn’t they splash the cash?
Expand or die theory has ran out of planet to expand upon, which means they will now be looking for chaos – war and nuclear spills are a great start for them to create new markets, rich men get real nasty when their backs are to the wall – killing mass groups of people has never troubled them before, I seriously don’t see them baking bread on campfires real soon.
Your theory is wonderful, but believers of it will be living on a very small island, and after everyone else has poisened themselves, maybe we’ll call it Eden?
Great post Guy, Thanks!!!
Gordon Sturrock
Radical Vet, for truth, justice and non-violence